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Draft prepared by engineering — pending review by a lawyer before mainnet. It describes how arky works today, from its code, and will change before it is final. Text marked [to be completed: …] is information the operator has not supplied yet.

Prediction market terms

Draft of 24 September 2026

These terms add to the terms of service for prediction markets. They describe what the ArkyPredictions contract does; where they and the contract differ, the contract is what executes.

1. What a market is

Each market is a yes-or-no question with a written condition and a closing time. It is backed by USDC: one YES share plus one NO share is always worth exactly one USDC of the market’s collateral. Prices come from an automated market maker inside the contract, so a market can always be traded until it closes, but the price moves as you trade.

2. Availability

Markets appear only where a way to settle them is live. A price market needs a vetted price feed on the network; an event market needs arky’s event resolver to be enabled. Where neither exists, the app says so and no market can be opened.

3. Creating a market

  • Anyone can create a market. The creator writes the question and condition and seeds its liquidity.
  • The creator chooses a resolver only from those the contract owner has approved, and the settlement terms are fixed when the market is created. The creator can neither decide the outcome nor change the condition after people have traded on it.
  • The creator must not create a market that is misleading, that they can influence, or that concerns death, violence, terrorism or a person’s private life. See the acceptable use policy.
  • After settlement, the creator withdraws the liquidity left in the market.

4. Trading

You can buy or sell YES and NO shares until the closing time. Each trade pays the prediction trading fee set in the contract; the ticket shows it before you sign, and the fees page says where to read it on-chain.

5. Settlement

  • Price markets are settled from the price feed named in the market, after the closing time.
  • Event markets are settled by hand by one account arky controls (the settler), which reads the result and writes it on-chain. There is no on-chain proof: you are trusting that account. Every event market says so where it appears.
  • A market resolves YES, NO or Invalid. Invalid is used when the question cannot be fairly answered.
  • If a market is not settled within the contract’s grace period after it closes, the contract owner can declare it Invalid.

6. Redeeming

After settlement, each winning share redeems for one USDC and each losing share for nothing. If the market is Invalid, every share redeems for half a USDC, whichever side it is on. You redeem from the app or directly from the contract; nobody redeems for you.

7. Disputes

The contract has no dispute or appeal process: once written on-chain, a result is final. If you believe a market was settled wrongly, write to us through the contact page; we will look at it, but we may not be able to change the outcome.

8. Local law

Prediction markets are treated as gambling, betting or financial products in some countries, and restricted or banned in others. You must check that taking part is lawful where you are.